My Core Beliefs

1. Markets are efficient in the long-term, but inefficient in the short and medium-term

2. Absolute forecasts are hard to make, and relative forecasts are easier

3. Fundamental economic data is the main driver of returns, but alternative data has a place as well

4. Machines are better at identifying patterns than humans and have greater discipline, but they still require guidance

5. Forecasting asset class returns is easier compared to forecasting single-stock returns